How the Delegate Process Works

Source: Bo Harmon, Senior Vice-President, Political Field Division; BIPAC

Like the Electoral College, most people have a general sense that there is a group of "delegates" for each party who actually determine each party's nominee for President at their national conventions. Most people assume that delegate allocation generally follows the popular vote and in most cases, that is exactly what happens. But sometimes it doesn't. In 2000, George Bush won the Electoral College and the Presidency but lost the popular vote and with each party facing very competitive nomination processes, it is worth being familiar with how the delegate allocation process works, just in case it becomes relevant.

Many people are surprised that there are very few rules or laws at the federal level about how each party determines its nominee for President. There are laws about the general election of course, but federal law leaves the process of determining each nominee largely to the parties. The parties in turn give great deference to each state, within some broad parameters. For example, each state determines whether they will hold a caucus or primary or some other nomination process (a party convention for example). They also decide when those contests will take place and who is eligible to participate. Each party has come up with a system of awarding delegates to candidates based on their performance in each state, but beyond that, the parties take different courses.

The Democratic delegate allocation system is the more straightforward of the two. Each state is given a certain number of "pledged delegates" based on population and past support for the party. There are 4763 total Democratic delegates and a candidate must win at least half of them to earn the nomination. Of those, 85 percent are "pledged" delegates that candidates "win" based on their performance in caucuses and primaries. 15 percent, or 712, of those delegates are "superdelegates" who can support whatever candidate they choose. They are senior elected officials and party leaders who are given delegate status based on their elected or appointed position.  

All Democratic primaries award "pledged delegates" on a proportional basis for any candidate winning a minimum threshold of 15 percent of the vote to earn any delegates at all. With only two candidates in the race, this allocation becomes pretty straightforward and the 15 percent threshold will be met by each candidate in almost every state. If Sanders wins 60 percent of the vote in a given state, he will earn 60 percent of the pledged delegates for that state. Sometimes the allocation is based on Congressional districts (the delegates grouped by Congressional district, so winning six Congressional districts out of ten awards 60 percent of the delegates for that state even if the vote total statewide was 51-49). Superdelegates are free to support whichever candidate they choose. In this regard, Clinton has a substantial lead of 362-8 amongst superdelegates who have indicated their preference. So, of the pledged delegates, Sanders must win 54 percent to reach a majority based on Clinton's head start with superdelegates. But with only two candidates, one or the other will end up with a majority, but if it is close going into the convention and 15 percent of the delegates can switch their support at will, and the rest are divided based on vote share, either statewide or by Congressional district, even the Democratic nomination could come down to the wire.

The Republicans don't have superdelegates, but pledged delegates are awarded in much more of a Frankenstein system. Like the Democrats, to win the nomination, a candidate must end up with at least half of all delegates to the convention. For the GOP, there are 2472 total delegates and a candidate must capture at least 1237. Some states award delegates on a proportional basis (and even those have a wide variety of minimum thresholds to qualify for ANY delegates) while others are winner take all and  some are a hybrid (it is proportional unless a candidate wins X percent, in which case they win all delegates; or they may be winner-take-all by Congressional district). The RNC sets broad ground rules and then each state party determines how it wants to award delegates under the broad ground rules. This year, the ground rules included that no state could award delegates on a "winner-take-all" basis until March 15 or later (except South Carolina, which is winner take all by Congressional district). With seven remaining candidates in the race, you can imagine that the process of how delegates are allocated quickly becomes important to a winning strategy.

On the Republican side, all but nine states allocate delegates using some sort of proportional distribution. There are various thresholds to achieve ANY delegates, and some are allocated statewide and others by Congressional district (or, in Texas' case, by state senate district). Only nine states are truly "winner take all" and each of those hold elections on March 15 or later. The first big states in that category are Ohio and Florida. Thus, Ohio Governor John Kasich believes he is in a good position to win all of Ohio's delegates and put him in a strong position even if he has lagged in other states. The same is true for Floridians Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush regarding that state's delegates.

As long as the Republican field contains so many candidates and each continues to win SOME delegates in each contest, the more difficult it becomes for any candidate to consolidate a true majority. If no candidate has a majority at the Convention, there is a "brokered" or "contested" Convention and delegates are "released" to support the candidate of their choice as the candidate to whom they were pledged coming in drops out of the running. Frequently those delegates will move to a new candidate en masse to increase their impact and you can imagine the negotiations for which candidates will give up delegates and at what price becomes very intense.  

While a brokered convention is certainly possible, the more likely scenario is that one candidate will end up with a majority of delegates as the field narrows and the "winner take all" or at least "winner take most" states come onto the calendar. If no candidate has a majority, one is likely to be very close and will win the nomination without too much struggle as consensus builds around them. But, it is possible, just possible, that the delegate allocation is so jumbled amongst so many candidates that the nominee is decided by old fashioned horse-trading negotiation. When THAT happens, almost anything is possible.