Control of the U.S. Senate Remains Up in the Air

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up in 2012 with 11 of those seats being open seat contest (AZ, CT, AK, IN, ME, NE, NM, ND, TX, VA & WI). At the start of this election cycle, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans were in great position to capture the majority. To do so would require a net gain of four seats to get to 51 seats and thus clear control. As time marched forward several events have made this task for Republicans much more difficult. Here are a few of the main hurdles that are hurting the GOP’s chances:

• The quality of GOP candidates compared to 2010 is not as strong especially against vulnerable incumbent Democrats.
• A sure victory in Maine with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) went out the window when she decided to retire and Independent candidate, and former governor, Angus King threw his hat in the ring.
• A likely victory in Indiana turned into a competitive race when GOP challenger Richard Murdock (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar (R). Lugar was the only Senate incumbent to lose a primary this year.
• A highly vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) caught two breaks when Rep. Todd Akin (R) won the GOP primary over two stronger General Election candidates and then when Akin made the most controversial comments of the cycle. Even with his foot in his mouth, Akin has closed to within six points.