Election Information: Congressional Redistricting Is Complete

Reminder: Complete OABA Action Center Survey by Sept. 25

Congressional Redistricting Is Complete … For Now

The 2011-2012 Congressional redistricting process is now complete in all 50 states following the 2010 re-apportionment, with Kansas earning the distinction as the last state to complete the process. Although each state legislature, governor or redistricting commission has now concluded its process, the possibility of lawsuits could re-open the process and possibly result in a different map being implemented at any point this decade. There are currently serious lawsuits active in Texas that may have an impact on the 2012 election. In addition to Texas, Ohio has a real possibility of revisiting congressional lines next year.

While there were significant changes in delegation numbers due to incumbents deciding to retire and incumbents being paired against each other, this impact was at the state and district level. When looking at the net impact on all 435 House seats, the net partisan change as a result of redistricting is essentially zero. Gains made by a party in one state were offset from gains made by the competing party elsewhere. One of the most significant outcomes of this redistricting process has been a change in the overall number of districts that are competitive at a partisan level. Improvements in technology and a greater ability to target and understand voting patterns led to a redistricting process resulting in fewer competitive districts.

Eleven pairs of incumbents will face each other in a total of 13 contests (the two pairs in California will face each other twice – once in the top two primary election and then again in the general election).

States that gained a seat(s) as a result of re-apportionment:

• Gained Four Seats – Texas
• Gained Two Seats – Florida
• Gained One Seat – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington

States that lost a seat(s) as a result of re-apportionment:

• Lost Two Seats – New York and Ohio
• Lost One Seat – Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

As a result of incumbents not running for re-election (often because of redistricting), some states will have a much larger turnover in their delegation to the 113th Congress. California is guaranteed to have at least nine new members. Other states with some significant changes in its House delegation in the next Congress:

• At Least Nine Freshmen – California
• At Least Seven Freshmen – Texas
• At Least Four Freshmen – Florida
• At Least Three Freshmen – Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina and Washington

Reminder: Complete OABA Action Center Survey by Sept. 25

If you haven’t already completed the OABA Action Center survey, please do so by September 25 – your feedback is important to us.

Click here to learn more about the survey, and to take get started with the survey.